Poland and the US have been allies since the republic joined NATO in 1999 (Furman et al, 2024). Poland’s eastern border also marks the border of both NATO and the EU. Poland’s geopolitical location makes it a strategically important ally of the US. These in turn have the strongest army in the world. Continued cooperation between the two countries, therefore, seems an obvious strategic choice (Tomeczek, 2021).
One of the main arguments for Poland’s accession to NATO was to provide it with additional protection against a possible armed conflict with Russia (Osica, 2002). According to Lesinski (2016), NATO alone cannot guarantee Poland’s security if the US does not have a vital interest in the region. NATO’s weak response to the Russian-Ukrainian conflict in 2014 adds credibility to this argument (Rotfeld, 2018) ; although Ukraine is not a formal member of NATO, it remains closely linked to the organization, as evidenced by strong statements about its future membership (NATO, 2020). Renewing tensions with Russia have prompted NATO and the US to deploy military forces in the region, which has simultaneously resulted in a reduction of the US military presence in the Pacific (Bednarz, 2015). The Russian-Ukrainian war has changed the situation dramatically. After 22 March 2022, the American contingent size increased. Moreover, its equipment has changed. Poland became even more dependent on the US through the purchase of military equipment.
Although the US is only Poland’s 8th export partner, the US is the second recipient of Polish value added after Germany – 57 per cent of the USD 23 billion of Polish VAT consumed in the US goes there indirectly via other countries (Furman et al., 2024). Poland cannot renegotiate tariffs with the US as a member of the EU and therefore also of the Customs Union. The situation is changing dynamically after Donald Trump became the US president. The US is the most important destination for EU goods. The EU and the US have the most developed bilateral trade and investment relationship and the closest economic relationship in the world – this is how the EU and US economic cooperation has so far been described by EU institutions, setting a model for the transatlantic exchange of goods and services. Poland, as a member of the EU, may also experience the effects of the US tariff war, although it will not be such a significant loss.
As a result of the policy of pressure on the EU and Ukraine, Poland’s purchasing strategy in the arms industry may be diversified. Poland’s planned defense spending for 2025 is expected to be 60% higher than in 2023 and 2.5 times higher than in 2022, reaching 4.7% of Poland’s GDP, which is significantly above the 2% threshold required by NATO. Pressure from Donald Trump’s administration could result in the EU and, consequently, Poland becoming more independent from the US(Furman et al., 2024). The security of Poland depends mostly on the relations we have with the superpowers, particularly the US. Poland is aware of this and is determined to maintain good relations with these powers, especially when it comes to security and defense. In terms of national security and armed forces, Polish American relations are asymmetrical (Kupiecki, 2016). We can observe dependency from the Polish side.
References
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